Civitas Review Online

It has to do with unstoppable solar cycles.
-Max Borders

The results of our last poll are now live on our website with the usual questions on the direction of the state, which issue is most important, etc.

We also polled the Lt. Governor and Treasurer's races since there were open seats.  The Democrats lead in both by about 9 points.

Check it all out here.

It is one of those considerations you know about when you buy your house.  If, as a conservative, you decide to move into a leftist enclave, you can expect your neighbors to take offense when you place the campaign sign of a non liberal on your property.

Some of them may even be so incensed by your brazen and rude expression of your First Amendment rights that they decide to correct your politically incorrect error by taking your sign and placing it in the appropriate compost or recycling receptacle.

Typically, when the shoe is on the other foot, and a campaign sign is taken out of a liberal's yard, the lefties will call a press conference, hold a vigil or solidarity march and demand law enforcement action to find out what happened to their $1.50 sign.

Conservatives usually just put up another sign. Shawn Turschak of the People's Republic of Orange County (PROC) tried something different.  He wired his McCain/Palin sign to an electric fence.  Low current and nonlethal.  Just enough to give some corrective feedback to the sign thief.  Fortunately for webizens, like you, he also mounted a video camera.  Enjoy:

It turns out, one of the thieves was an 8 year old. They do teach'em young in the PROC.  Don't draw too many conclusions though, later in the day Turschak caught an elderly woman stealing his signs.

"Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods."

Dan Henninger argues in the Wall Street Journal that an Obama presidency would shift our fundamental national principles from wealth creation to wealth protection. Is it the end of “cowboy capitalism” and a levelling of our national trajectory? All the more reason to get to the polls. Worth the read.

An absolute must-read from Russ Roberts in today's WSJ. A sliver:

By acting without rhyme or reason, politicians have destroyed the rules of the game. There is no reason to invest, no reason to take risk, no reason to be prudent, no reason to look for buyers if your firm is failing. Everything is up in the air and as a result, the only prudent policy is to wait and see what the government will do next. The frenetic efforts of FDR had the same impact: Net investment was negative through much of the 1930s.

Worst of all are the political incentives that are unleashed when Washington promises to spend a trillion dollars (and counting). No one can spend such money wisely even if they want to. The information about who needs to be bailed out and who needs to fail is too complicated. Inevitably, such decisions will begin to be more about politics than economics.

-Max Borders

Watching one of the Sunday talk shows last week I was struck by the comment of the talking head who reflected back on a 2004 interview with President Bush in the closing days of the campaign. He said that after the interview the President pointed at southeastern Ohio and said that is where he would win re-election. His prediction had to do with confidence that his campaign ground game could turn out voters. On Election Day 2004 his prediction was confirmed.

So now after all the campaigning, spending and debates it comes down to turnout. Here in North Carolina Barack Obama has had the playing field to himself for most of the election. His spending and organization is dwarfing any previous presidential campaign in North Carolina. His allies in ACORN (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now), Moveon.org and others have been aggressively registering and voting potential supporters.

John McCain has come late to the fight in North Carolina. He now has an active campaign, spending and appearances in North Carolina. If I had to guess, the McCain campaign has no central point like southeastern Ohio to point to and say that is where he will win. Instead he has to compete across the country due to Obama's overwhelming money (over $600 million) advantage this year. The question is will the McCain ground game carry the day? Will it turn out the voters he needs to win in North Carolina?

Looking at the early voting numbers it appears Democrats jumped off to an early lead but in the last several days Republicans have started making up ground. You can see for yourself in the Civitas analysis Early Voting Trends. On November 4th we will see who had the better ground game.

Our final poll results are in, and all 3 races are inside the margin of error.  So I'm going to take the easy way out and say all the races are too close to call.

We've seen some movement since the last poll though.  McCain has tightened the race to only a 1 point deficit.  Dole has closed to within two points of Hagan, and Perdue has moved to a 2 point lead over McCrory.

Barack Obama – 47% (-1 from last poll)
John McCain – 46% (+1)
Bob Barr – 3% (+2)
Undecided – 5%
Click Here for Full Results

Kay Hagan – 45% (+2)
Elizabeth Dole – 43% (+2)
Chris Cole – 4% (no change)
Undecided – 7%
Click Here for Full Results

Bev Perdue – 45% (+2)
Pat McCrory – 43% (nc)
Mike Munger – 3% (+1)
Undecided – 9%
Click Here for Full Results

Have you ever wondered about the difference between North and South Carolina?  Despite what the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce would have you believe, they are a considerable number of differences between the two.

South Carolina has always been a hotbed of conservatism while North Carolina's citizens just think they are conservative.  The truth is that the electorate has been constantly fed a steady stream of disinformation by the liberals in power.

If you really want to know the difference, you need to look no further than the state's choice's for license plates.  South Carolina is now taking orders for a new plate for Christian believers.  (Don't worry haters of faith on the left, they also have a plate for secular humanists as well.)



Meanwhile, North Carolina's lawmakers can't seem to find the time or will to authorize the now ubiquitous "Choose Life" plate. (22 states already have it, including the conservative bastions of Maryland, Connecticut and Haiwaii.)  

Don't get me wrong, North Carolina legislators have no problem passing bills to authorize new plates.  There are currently more than 180 authorized special plates for the public. (The number is really north of 500 since NC high school fans can also get their own plate, though none have reached the required number of requests.) Somehow, North Carolina's lawmakers did let the "In God We Trust" plate pass.

So, while your neighbors in Florence, Ft. Mill and Conway can display their beliefs on their bumpers, North Carolinians can have NASCAR and their favorite college, but hold the personal views.

For those of you in the Raleigh listening area, I'll be on WPTF at 3:08pm this afternoon releasing our latest and final (thankfully) poll results.

Tune in and find out!