Civitas Review Online

In our poll this month, we asked Democratic and Unaffiliated voters if they had a preference in the Democratic Primary for the US Senate nomination, and by and large they do not have a preference yet.  75 percent of voters were undecided on any of the three announced candidates.

The breakdown was:

Marshall – 14%
Lewis – 7%
Cunningham – 4%
Undecided – 75%

I do have to point out, that in fairness, this is a poll of likely general election voters, not necessarily Democratic primary voters.  But at this stage, none of the candidates have made a splash.

It is somewhat surprising too how low Cunningham is in the poll given how much attention was given to his wooing by the national Democratic Party.  I guess it just goes to show how little average voters pay attention to things like that.

Ultimately, this race will probably be decided by whichever candidate can raise enough money to get on TV the earliest and the heaviest.  It’s wide open now, but whoever puts the first TV ad up will probably jump out to a big lead.

Full press release here.  Full crosstabs and the data here.

In our latest poll, we have Sen. Richard Burr leading NC Sec. of State Elaine Marshall 43.7% to 33.0%.

Burr is leading among Republicans 79-6 and among Unaffiliateds 47-24.  Marshall leads with Democrats but by a much smaller margin 57-17.

In fact, Burr’s hardcore support — those who say they are definitely voting for him (33.2%) — is slightly larger than Marshall’s overall support.

While yes, Burr is below 50%, he’s still in a good position.  His base is solidified, so he can spend the next year winning swing voters.  Meanwhile, Marshall still has to get through a potentially crowded primary (especially if Etheridge and/or Wicker get in the race), solidify her base and then start winning over unaffiliated voters that are already breaking for Burr.

Full results and crosstabs here.