In our poll this month, we asked Democratic and Unaffiliated voters if they had a preference in the Democratic Primary for the US Senate nomination, and by and large they do not have a preference yet. 75 percent of voters were undecided on any of the three announced candidates.
The breakdown was:
Marshall – 14%
Lewis – 7%
Cunningham – 4%
Undecided – 75%
I do have to point out, that in fairness, this is a poll of likely general election voters, not necessarily Democratic primary voters. But at this stage, none of the candidates have made a splash.
It is somewhat surprising too how low Cunningham is in the poll given how much attention was given to his wooing by the national Democratic Party. I guess it just goes to show how little average voters pay attention to things like that.
Ultimately, this race will probably be decided by whichever candidate can raise enough money to get on TV the earliest and the heaviest. It’s wide open now, but whoever puts the first TV ad up will probably jump out to a big lead.
Full press release here. Full crosstabs and the data here.
Apologies to Greensboro blogger Guarino for borrowing his title in describing Hagan’s actions (or rather inaction) on the nomination of a new US Attorney for the Eastern District of NC, but Burr’s announcement on Friday that he would not block Thomas Walker’s nomination is an even bigger misstep.
According to poll results we released on Friday, 76 percent of North Carolina voters think current US Attorney George Holding should be allowed to complete his investigations into former Gov. Mike Easley and former US Senator John Edwards before being replaced.
It begs the question, why would Burr come out and take the position of not blocking the replacement US Attorney? He has very little, if any, risk in doing so. Keeping Holding on the job is supported across political parties and strongly by unaffiliated voters. If anything, Burr runs the risk of alienating his base voters through this announcement more than he risks any backlash from the left.
Burr could very easily take the position that he will support Walker’s nomination, but only after the current investigations are complete. Widely supported, politically safe. Instead, he’s chosen the most unpopular path possible. And many wonder why his poll numbers aren’t any better.
In our latest poll, we have Sen. Richard Burr leading NC Sec. of State Elaine Marshall 43.7% to 33.0%.
Burr is leading among Republicans 79-6 and among Unaffiliateds 47-24. Marshall leads with Democrats but by a much smaller margin 57-17.
In fact, Burr’s hardcore support — those who say they are definitely voting for him (33.2%) — is slightly larger than Marshall’s overall support.
While yes, Burr is below 50%, he’s still in a good position. His base is solidified, so he can spend the next year winning swing voters. Meanwhile, Marshall still has to get through a potentially crowded primary (especially if Etheridge and/or Wicker get in the race), solidify her base and then start winning over unaffiliated voters that are already breaking for Burr.
Full results and crosstabs here.